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Energy Technology Choices: Shaping Our Future - 1991

Crane, Alan T.
Moyad, Andrew H.
Seder, Joanne M.

Office of Technological Assessment

In this pdf format, this document has 152 pages and is 2.38MB.

Table of Contents

Overview 1
Chapter 1:  Introduction: The Changing Context for Energy Technology Policy 7
  THE ENERGY POLICY CONTEXT 7
  Declining Energy Intensity 9
Sharply Increasing Dependence on Foreign Oil 10
Change in the Electric Utility Industry 12
Changing Environmental Dimensions of Energy Policy 14
The Nuclear Dilemma 14
Renewable Energy Technology 14
Technology Research, Development, and Demonstration 16
CANDIDATE ENERGY POLICY GOALS TO REFLECT A NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY 16
  Limit Oil Import Dependence and Diversify Supply Sources 17
Improve Energy Efficiency 17
Improve Environment Quality 17
Implications of Goals on U.S. Oil Import Dependence 18
Linking U.S. Energy Strategy to Global Climate Concerns 18
CONCLUSIONS 19
 
BOXES
1-A. National Energy Strategy: A Historical Note 10
1-B. Changes in U.S. Oil Supply and Demand Since 1973 13
1-C The Changing U.S. Electric Utility Industry 15
 
FIGURES
1-1. Index of U.S., GDP, Energy Intensity, Energy Use, and Electricity Use 11
1-2. U.S. Oil Imports, 1989 12
1-3. Total Oil Use and Imports U.S., Europe, and Japan, 1973 and 1988 12
1-4. U.S. Electricity Consumption, 1989 Base Case to 2020 14
 
TABLE
1-1. OTA Reports That Address Energy Technologies 8
 
Chapter 2: Technologies Affecting Demand 23
  U.S. ENERGY USE 23
  Changes in Energy Use from 1973 to 1988 23
Future Energy Use 26
Energy Use by Sector-An Overview 27
 
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SECTORS 30
  Opportunities for Improving Soace Heating and Cooling Efficiency 30
Opportunities for Improving Building Envelope Efficiency 32
Opportunities for Improving Water Heating Efficiency 33
Opportunities for Improving Lighting Efficiency 34
Opportunities for Improving Appliance Efficiency 35
Opportunities for Improving Energy Management and Control Systems 37
 
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 37
  Computer Control and Sensors 38
Waste Heat Recovery 38
Cogeneration 39
Separation 40
Catalytic Reaction 40
Combustion 40
Electric Motors 41
Pulp and Paper Industry 42
Petroleum Refining Industry 43
Steel Industry 44
Chemicals Industry 45
 
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 46
  Automobile Efficiency 46
Heavy-Truck Efficiency 47
Aircraft Efficiency 47
Alternative Fuels 49
 
OTHER FACTORS THAT AFFECT ENERGY USE 54
 
  Environmental Concerns 54
Appliance Energy Standards 55
Building Energy Codes from 56
Corporate Average Fuel Efficient (CAFE) Standards 57
Electric Utility Programs-Demand-Side Management 57
Oil Supply and Price Uncertainties 58
Fuel Switching 59
 
FIGURES
2-1. Furnace Replacement Accumulated Savings 31
2-2. Potential Energy Savings with Improved Sensor Technology 38
     
TABLES  
2-1. Technologies Affecting Demand 24
2-2. Energy Overview, Selected Years, 1970-89 25
2-3. Consumption of Energy by Sector, 1970-89 26
2-4. Household Energy Consumption by Application and Fuel Source, 1978, 1980-82, 1984, 1987 28
2-5. Comparison of Residential Energy Use Forecasts 29
2-6. Comparison of Commercial Energy Use Forecasts 29
2-7. Estimated Energy Used to produce Paper and Paperboard Products 42
2-8. Technologies for Improving Energy Efficiency in the Steel Industry 45
2-9. Energy-Intensive Processes in chemical Manufacturing 46
2-10. Reported Efficiency Improvements for Developed or Near-Term Technology 48
2-11. Pros and Cons of Alternative Fuels 50
2-12. Cumulative Energy Impacts of the National Appliance Energy Conservation Amendments of 1988, 1990 to 2015 56
 
Chapter 3: Technologies for Energy Supply and Conversion 63
  U.S. ENERGY SUPPLY 63
TECHNOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING FOSSIL FUEL SUPPLIES 66
  Petroleum 66
Natural Gas 71
Coal 74
NON-FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES 78
  The Nuclear Power Option 79
Fusion 84
Future Electricity Supply Options 84
Renewable Energy Technologies 91
OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPLY 103
  Environmental Concerns 103
Obstacles to a Nuclear Revival 105
 
FIGURES
3-1. Production Platform Technologies for Frontier Areas 68
3-2. Location of Principal Tight Formation Basins 73
3-3. Pressurized Water Reactor 81
3-4. Boiling Water Reactor 82
3-5. First Generation CAES Plant 88
3-6 DOE Energy R&D Budget: 1980-1991 Selected Budget Lines 91
 
TABLES
3-1. Major Technologies for Energy Supply and Conversion 64
3-2. Production of Energy by Source 65
3-3. Status of Alaska State Coastal Exploration, Development, and Production Projects 69
 
Chapter 4: Potential Scenarios for Future Energy Trends 111
  PROJECTIONS FOR THE 112
  Scenario 1: Baseline 112
Scenario 2: High Growth 114
Scenario 3: Moderate Emphasis on Efficiency 118
Scenario 4: High Emphasis on Efficiency 121
Scenario 5: High Emphasis on Renewable Energy 124
Scenario 6: High Emphasis on Nuclear Power 127
Comparative Impact of Scenarios 129
 
Chapter 5: Policy Issues 135
  INTRODUCTION 135
BASELINE SCENARIO 137
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 137
MODERATE EFFICIENCY SCENARIO 139
HIGH EFFICIENCY SCENARIO 143
HIGH RENEWABLES SCENARIO 144
HIGH NUCLEAR SCENARIO 146
COMPARING SCENARIOS 146
 
FIGURE
5-1. DOE Conservation R&D Budgets, Budget Requests, and Appropriations 137
 
TABLE
5-1. Summary of Policy Options 148