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Estimating Impacts of Diesel Fuel Reformulation
with Vector-Based Blending - 2002

Hadder, G. R.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

In the pdf format this document has 195 pages and is 1MB.

Table of Contents

LIST OF TABLES vii
LIST OF FIGURES xi
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS xiii
ABSTRACT xvii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES-1
  ES.1 OBJECTIVES AND KEY FINDINGS ES-1
ES.2 PREMISES AND CASES ES-1
ES.3 EMISSIONS MODELING ES-4
ES.4 RFD STUDY FINDINGS ES-5
 
PART I: THE REFINERY STUDY

I-1

 INTRODUCTION I-1

I-2

 THE ORNL REFINERY YIELD MODEL I-5
 

I-2.1

 ORNL-RYM2002 I-5

I-2.2

 MODEL UPDATE I-5

I-3

 PREMISES I-7
 

I-3.1

 POLICY ISSUES I-7

I-3.2

 STUDY PERIOD AND GEOGRAPHIC AREA I-8

I-3.3

 TECHNICAL PREMISES I-8
 

I-3.3.1

 Refinery Product Rates I-11

I-3.3.2

 Distillate Quality I-11

I-3.3.3

 Gasoline Quality I-13

I-3.3.4

 Refinery Raw Materials I-14

I-3.3.5

 Refinery Capacity and Investment I-14

I-3.3.6

 Product Revenue and Raw Material Costs I-14

I-3.3.7

 Study Cases I-14

I-4

 EMISSIONS MODELING I-17
 

I-4.1

 GASOLINE I-17

I-4.2

 DIESEL FUEL I-17

I-4.3

 DIESEL FUEL EMISSIONS MODELING CONCERNS I-18

I-5

 CALIBRATION AND DEMONSTRATION I-21
 

I-5.1

 CALIBRATION CRITERIA I-21

I-5.2

 CALIBRATION ADJUSTMENTS I-21

I-5.3

 CALIBRATION RESULTS I-22

I-6

 IMPACTS OF DIESEL FUEL REFORMULATION IN PADD II REFINERIES I-27
 

I-6.1

 BASE CASE 1: LOW SULFUR DIESEL FUEL I-27

I-6.2

 CASE 1.1: PARALLEL INVESTMENT AND VEHICLE PERFORMANCE RFD I-54

I-6.3

 CASE 1.2: PARALLEL INVESTMENT AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION RFD I-54

I-6.4

 BASE CASE 2: ULSD I-55

I-6.5

 CASE 2.1: SEQUENTIAL INVESTMENT AND VEHICLE PERFORMANCE RFD I-56

I-6.6

 CASE 2.2: SEQUENTIAL INVESTMENT AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION RFD I-57

I-6.7

 EMISSIONS SPECIFICATION BENEFITS I-57

I-6.8

 OFF-ROAD SULFUR I-61

I-7

 IMPACT OF DIESEL FUEL REFORMULATION ON DEMAND FOR CANADIAN SYNTHETIC CRUDE I-63

I-8

 CONCLUSIONS I-69
 
REFERENCES I-73
 
APPENDIX I-A: ENSYS ENERGY & SYSTEMS, INC., PROGRESS REPORT NUMBER 1 TECHNOLOGY AND FEATURES ENHANCEMENTS TO THE ORNL RYM MODEL I-77
APPENDIX I-B: ENSYS ENERGY & SYSTEMS, INC., PROGRESS REPORT NUMBER 2 TECHNOLOGY AND FEATURES ENHANCEMENTS TO THE ORNL RYM MODEL I-83
APPENDIX I-C: API COMMENTS ON RESEARCH PROPOSAL "ESTIMATING IMPACTS OF DIESEL FUEL REFORMULATION WITH VECTOR-BASED BLENDING" I-95
APPENDIX I-D: API COMMENTS ON DOE RFD STUDY I-105
 
PART II: DIESEL FUEL EMISSIONS MODELS FOR THE ORNL REFINERY YIELD MODEL
 

II-1

 INTRODUCTION II-1
 

II-1.1

 BACKGROUND II-1

II-1.2

 PURPOSE OF THIS WORK II-2

II-1.3

 SUMMARY II-2

II-1.4

 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT II-3

II-2

 METHODOLOGY AND DATA II-5
 

II-2.1

 DIESEL FUEL AND EMISSIONS DATABASE II-5

II-2.2

 FUEL VARIABLE SPACE II-5

II-2.3

 METHODOLOGY FOR MODEL DEVELOPMENT II-7

II-3

 EIGENVECTOR EMISSIONS MODEL II-11
 

II-3.1

 NOX EMISSIONS MODEL II-11

II-3.2

 PM EMISSIONS MODEL II-13

II-4

 EMISSIONS RESPONSE MODELS II-15
 

II-4.1

 INTRODUCTION II-15

II-4.2

 NOX RESPONSE MODEL II-16

II-4.3

 PM RESPONSE MODEL II-21

II-5

 IMPLEMENTATION IN RYM II-29
 

II-5.1

 REPRESENTING TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE II-29

II-5.2

 IMPLEMENTATION IN RYM II-32
 
REFERENCES II-33
 
APPENDIX II-A: STATISTICAL RESULTS FOR NOX EMISSIONS MODEL II-35
APPENDIX II-B: STATISTICAL RESULTS FOR PM EMISSIONS MODEL II-41
APPENDIX II-C: PEER REVIEW COMMENTS AND REPLY II-47