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Replacing Gasoline: Alternative Fuels for Light-Duty Vehicles - 1990

Plotkin, Steven E.
Brumfield, Tina
Chapman, Lillian
Long, Linda

Office of Technological Assessment

In this pdf format, this document has 140 pages and is 4.58MB.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1
  OVERVIEW

1
  Meeting Society's Goals

3
Other Key Issues 4
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 4
  The Perceived Benefits of Alternative Fuels 6
Introducing Alternative Fuels Into the Light Duty Fleet 11
Chapter 1. Introduction 23
Chapter 2. Why Support Alternative Fuels? 31
  OZONE CONTROL IN PERSPECTIVE 31
  Why Control Ozone? 32
Ozone and Its Precursors 33
Controlling Volatile Organic Compounds 34
Controlling Nitrogen Oxides 40
The Role of Alternative Fuels 40
ENERGY SECURITY IN PERSPECTIVE 42
  Should Energy Security Be a Major Concern for U.S. Policymakers? 42
Energy Security Effects of Alternative Fuels 48
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT IN PERSPECTIVE 49
  Introduction 49
Key Uncertainties 50
Benchmarkarming: The Effect of Doubled Cob 53
Reducing CO2 Emissions in the Near-Term 53
The Transportation Sector and Global Warming 54
U.S. Transportation Energy Use and CO2 Emissions 55
Alternative Fuels 56
Chapter 3. Substituting Methanol for Gasoline in the Automobile Fleet 59
  EFFECTS ON AIR QUALITY 60
  Organic Compounds and Ozone Reduction 61
Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) 69
Carbon Monoxide 69
Toxic Emissions 70
Greenhouse Emissions 71
OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY EFFECTS 72
COST COMPETITIVENESS 73
INFRASTRUCTURE 79
ENERGY SECURITY IMPLICATIONS 80
METHANOL OUTLOOK AND TIMING 83
APPENDIX 3A: FACTORS AFFECTING METHANOL COSTS 84
  Feedstock Costs 84
Production Costs 87
Capital Charges 88
Long-Distance Shipping 92
Distribution Costs 92
Retail Markup 93
Methanol/Gasoline Conversion Factor 93
Chapter 4. Natural Gas as a Vehicle Fuel 97
  VEHICLES 97
EFFECTS ON AIR QUALITY 99
SAFETY 101
COST COMPETITIVENESS 101
SOURCES OF SUPPLY AND STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS 102
REFUELING AND INFRASTRUCTURE 103
NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK AND TIMING 104
Chapter 5. Ethanol as a Gasoline Blending Agent or Neat Fuel in Highway Vehicles 107
  EFFECTS ON AIR QUALITY 107
COST COMPETITIVENESS 108
ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT EFFECTS 111
DEMAND LIMITS 114
ETHANOL OUTLOOK AND TIMING 114
Chapter 6. Electric Vehicles 117
  VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS 117
ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY 118
MARKET COMPETITIVENESS 119
HYBRID VEHICLES 120
INFRASTRUCTURE 122
EFFECTS ON EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY 123
ELECTRICITY OUTLOOK AND TIMING 124
Chapter 7. Hydrogen as a Vehicle Fuel 127
  FUEL SOURCE 127
VEHICLES AND FUEL STORAGE 127
EMISSIONS AND PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTES 128
SAFETY 128
DEVELOPMENT REQUIREMENTS 128
COST COMPETITIVENESS 129
HYDROGEN OUTLOOK AND TIMING 130
Chapter 8. Reformulated Gasoline 131
  ARCO's "EMISSION CONTROL 1" GASOLINE 132
REFORMULATION POTENTIAL 132
COSTS 134
SECONDARY IMPACTS 136
ADDITION OF OXYGENATES 136
 
BOXES

 

A

 Alternative Transportation Fuels 5

1-A

 Comparing Vehicles Fueled with Gasoline and Alternative Fuels 29

2-A

 Greenhouse Gases 51

3-A

 How Does EPA Arrive at Its Estimates for the Ozone-Reduction Impact of Methanol Vehicles 62

6-A

 GM's Impact: A Niche Vehicle 121

8-A

 What is Reformulated Gasoline 149
 
FIGURES
 

1

 Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Emissions in Nonattainment Cities in 1994, by Source Category, After All Additional Control Methods are Applied 7
2 EIA Projects of Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Import Requirements to 2010 Base Case 8
3 World Exportable Gas Surplus as of Dec. 31, 1987 9
4 Technical Differences Between Flexible-Fuel and Conventional Automobiles 12
5 Potential Low-Cost Suppliers of Methanol 14
6 Converting Methane to Methanol 17
7 Effect of Electricity Source on Greenhouse Impact of Electric Vehicles 21
2-1 Acute Effects of Ozone Exposure 33
2-2 Areas Classified as Nonattainment for Ozone Based on 1983-85 Data 35
2-3 VOC Emissions in Nonattainment Cities, by Source Category, in 1985 36
24 VOC Emissions Reductions in 1994 Compared to 1985 Emissions, by Control Method 37
2-5 Summary of Estimated Nationwide Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) Emissions by Source Category, by Year 41
2-6 EIA Projections of Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Import Requirements to 2010, Base Case 42
2-7 Distribution of World Oil Reserves, 1988 44
2-8 Current Contribution to Global Warming 54
2-9 Contribution of the Transportation Sector to CO2 Emissions 55
3-1 "Relative Reactivity" (Ozone-Forming Capability) of Emissions from M85-Fueled Vehicles v. Gasoline-Fueled Vehicles 66
3-2 Sensitivity of Relative Reactivities of M85 Emissions to Formaldehyde Emissions Levels 67
3-3 Year 2000 Reductions in Peak 1-Hour Ozone Concentrations From M85 Use 68
3A-1 Comparison of Discounted Cash Flow Rates of Return with Capital Charges Based on a Percentage of Total Fixed Investment Plus Working Capital 89
5-1 Process Diagram for the production of Fuel Ethanol from Grain 111
6-1 Effect of Electricity Source on Greenhouse Impact of Electric Vehicles 130
 
TABLES
  1 Pros and Cons of Alternative Fuels 2
2 Two Scenarios for Methanol Costs, $/Gallon 16
3 Environmental Impacts of Agriculture 18
1-1 Major Users of Alternative Fuels 24
2-1 Options for Amending the Clean Air Act: Currently Available Control Methods 38
2-2 Options for Amending the Clean Air Act: New Directions 39
3-1 Organic Emission Levels for Gasoline and Methanol-Fueled Vehicles 64
3-2 Component and Total Methanol Supply Costs during a Transition Phase 75
3-3 Component and Total Methanol Supply Costs in unestablished Market Environment 76
3-4 Market Shares of Oil and Gas Production and Reserves by Region in 1985 81
3-5 Proved Gas Reserves and Exportable Surpluses 82
3A-1 Estimated 1987 Gas Costs and prives 86
5-1 Environmental Impacts of Agriculture 111
5-2 Potential Environmental Effects of Logging and Forestry 114